Jays land Wells, eye another Leroy

Bwm_header_07_3NASHVILLE – Toronto picked up another Wells on Thursday, when they snatched Randy Wells away from the Cubs in the Rule 5 Draft.

Wells will be in the mix for a bullpen spot, and he can serve a variety of roles, considering he’s started and relieved. Last year, Wells went 5-6 with a 4.52 ERA in 40 games, including nine starts, with 101 strikeouts versus 41 walks over 95.2 innings.

More importantly, his name is Randy DAVID Wells. I mean, that has to be worth something, right? Along the same lines, Tim Lincecum’s middle name is Leroy. Harry Leroy Halladay anyone? This all can’t be a coincidence, can it?

To clear room on the 40-man roster, Toronto released righty Ryan Houston, who moved slowly up the farm system over nine years since being drafted by the Jays in 1998. Houston, 28, went 2-2 with a 4.30 ERA with Triple-A Syracuse last year.

The wait continues on the potential signing of free-agent catcher Paul Lo Duca and the potential Lincecum-for-Alex Rios trade with the Giants. Sounds like the Lo Duca thing may take a few days to happen, if it does, and it sounds like San Francisco might take longer to decide whether or not to pull the trigger.

Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi said that the team is still talking to right-hander Matt Clement, but that Toronto doesn’t have its sights on any more "reclamation projects" for the time being. I don’t expect much else to happen for the rest of the day, but if it does I’ll let you know.

105 Comments

Jordan-A point of clarification

The published stats on Wells in Iowa show his era at 4.52 not 3.73.

according to the sportsnet and tsn articles (which are probobly the same cp article) you’re right gsumner.

You are talking about his Minor league starts,

Jordan summarized his major league track record.

Yup, it’s 4.52 for last year and corrected on the blog. The 3.73 was his career ERA in the Minors.
~JB

I stand corrected… :)

Should check baseball-reference before I post!

I’m sure we will be hearing from gsumner soon that Wells is the next Johan Santana or should I say David Purcey

Shobie… give gsumner a break…

Personally I think less of his comments than some of the other people on this blog… but you are just a new low here…

David Purcey is a great pitcher… even without a 95 mph fastball…

Doc doesn’t have one… but without injuries doc would hve been the front runner for two my CY awards and I would have him pitching instead of Santana or Beckett on any given day(except for play-offs maybe… where beckett seems to zero in)

Some of your comments were even more far fetched… and sound like the typical rants of sport fans that Toronto is so known for :)

rshobie-well, since you have asked for my opinion of this deal here it is.

I don’t like this deal. I wonder why we let Lee Gronkiewicz slip from our hands and then take a guy like this in the rule 5 draft.

Last year in AA/AAA, Gronk had an era of 2.41 in 74 innings, with 10 walks and 83 strikeouts. We let Boston sign him and got nothing in return.

Then we paid $50k to the Cubs to grab Wells, who’s era was 4.52.

Both are right handers with similar stuff-Gronk just appears to be better. We should have held onto Gronk, instead.

Before deciding whether or not Purcey’s a bust or an ace in the making, how bout seeing if he can get through a year at AAA without getting lit up or injured? From what I’ve heard, he’s had his struggles, but he isn’t a lost cause just yet….

gsumner,

I agree there…

All at the time that Thorpe was kept on the roster… why?

I doubt this Wells guy sticks, his numbers are not very good in AAA, and we have alot of good young pitching.
with only 7 spots in the pen..we already have

Accardo, Downs, Fasor,Janssen, League, Brian Tallet, Wolfe and possibly BJ Ryan (probably May at the earliest) and throw Towers, I also liked Davis Romero from what I saw of him before he injured his shoulder in 2006.

So the odds are against him, but it doesnt hurt to give him a try I guess.

gsumner:

I’m not sure you can really compare Gronk with Wells. Yes, Gronk’s numbers were “better” last year, but Wells is valuable because he’s younger and could start in a pinch. One of Gronk’s biggest weaknesses is that he doesn’t have the stamina to last more than an inning. He could never, for example, be a long reliever. Wells, on the other hand, could be that 11th or 12th pitcher who comes in when a starter implodes.

For anyone who wants to do their own comparison, here are their respective career numbers:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/W/randy-wells.shtml

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/lee-gronkiewicz.shtml

And I’ve mentioned this before, but I think it’s telling that Boston picked up Gronk, yet they haven’t bothered to add him to their own 40 man roster.

All in all, though, I’d love to see Gronk succeed wherever he ends up. It’s nice in a “feel-good” kind of way to see a career minor-leaguer (Gronk turns 30 next year) finally get his shot in the bigs….

I just heard that the jays are signing close to getting Lo Duca. Does anybody think that the jays would be more willing to start him over Zaun? Unless Zaun proves himself in spring training, I would definetely start Lo Duca over him who has better carear stats and who is in fact younger. (even if it is by only one year)

And for everyone who had high hopes about Bedard coming to the Jays in a trade, Jeff Blair just wrote in his blog/mailbag that it’s a no-go. Apparently everyone’s favourite crazy team owner, Peter Angelos, has ordered his GM not to trade Bedard within the division.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071206.WBbaseball20071206144203/WBStory/WBbaseball/

thanks for the link hem.gold.
Don’t know if you read any of the other stuff, but I pretty much concur with what he said about Rios for Lincicum. Pitching is the way to go.

With that said I would still be happy if the jays do end up signing him to a long term deal.

enigma:

Yeah, as much as I like Rios, I’m with Blair on this one: you can never have enough pitching, especially young pitching that you can keep cheaply under contract for several years.

With that being said, if the deal falls through, I’m perfectly happy that the Jays get to keep Rios!

And here’s another bit of news. Looks like Glaus has been “cleared” by the league when it comes to the HGH allegations due to “insufficient evidence”:

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071206.wsptsuspensions6/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home

And I promise this will be the last link that I give for awhile, but here’s some more stuff about our new Rule 5 buddy, Randy Wells:

http://cubs.scout.com/2/708926.html

If you take out his numbers as a starter in AAA, he really doesn’t seem like a bad pickup….

Now that Glaus has avoided suspension, it’s a possibility that other teams will now be interested in taking him.

They say that the Giants and the Yankees are discussing a trade for Matsui. If that’s happening, then that might mean that the Rios to the Giants deal is cooling off.

Freedom:

I think other teams have been more concerned with Glaus’ injury history and high price tag than the steroid allegations. I’ll be very surprised if anyone comes calling for Glaus this off season….

Yea sorry I forgot to mention that. But I do think teams would be more interested in an expensive guy with a foot injury than an expensive guy with a foot injury and that can’t play for 50 games.

Hem, so if you’re so enamored with Wells, who’s spot on the roster do you expect him to take?

You must not be aware of the Rule 5 draft rules. I’ll include a very important paragraph for you.

“A player drafted onto a Major League roster in the Rule 5 draft must remain in the majors (on the 25-man active roster or the DL) for all of the subsequent season, or the drafting club must attempt to return him to his original club. However, since a returned Rule 5 player must first be placed on outright waivers, a third club could claim the player off waivers. But of course, that club would then also have to keep him in the majors all season, or offer him back to his original club.”.

So the question is which pitcher doesn’t make the roster to keep Wells?

Does it look like such a smart move now? If we had left Ty on the 40 man roster, as an example, we were under no obligation to keep him in the majors. We blow him off, and Gronk as well, for nothing in return and draft Wells-who we won’t keep on the 25 man roster, because he isn’t as good as Halliday, Burnett, McGowan, Marcum, Litcsh, Ryan, League, Accardo, Janssen, Frasor, Downs, or Wolfe.

So, we end up either putting him out on waivers or his old team back-in which case we get $25k of our $50k investment back.

But in the meantime we blew off Ty and Grong for nothing in return.

Smart-real smart move. I’m just wondering Hem, Does Wells look as good now?

It’s a no impact move as far as i’m concerned. The same with letting Ty and Grong go for nothing. With all due respect to those guys, players like that are a dime a dozen in the majors.

Paul Lo Duca threw out 23.4 percent of the baserunners last year. About 10% higher (i believe) then Zaun. It would be interesting to see if it goes significantly lower with the jay’s pitching staff (if he ends up signing).

enigma

Tell you what, lets look at what all 3 of these guys do up to the All-Star break, and then continue the discussion..

Thats what gsumners’ default position is when he knows he is wrong. “let’s see what happens at the allstar break”. Don’t know who the bigger idiot is gsumner or Gibbons. Greg Zahn may be a nice guy, even a good commentator but a starting catcher he is NOT. Don’t mind the guy in a platoon situation ( ala Zahn/Molina) and Le Duca would be a solid contributor to the position as an earlier comparison was made here by someone. Can you actually believe gsumner going on and on about a total stiff like Lee Gronkiewicz. My god the guy is like 30 garbage his whole career probably should get a real job and we are supposed to lose sleep about losing him. Rather save the plane fare of flying him to spring training! Same goes for Tabenheim if you ask me. I’m sure gsumner know’s alot more about the new Wells kid than J.P. and the rest of the Blue Jays brass. Give me a Break…..

Food for thought.
I think the Jays should re-sign Fasano.He’s a great presence around the pitching staff and is an decent fill in for Zaun. He would also be a great infuence on Thigpen and Diaz.Last year at the Wells press conference,I remember Uncle Ted talking about Canadian Pride and being competitive in the U.S market.What better way to back up those words than to give the green light to JP to work a deal for Canadian boy Eric Bedard an pony up with a contract extension to keep him in T.O for awhile.I like the proposed deal to the Giants(although I would hate to see Rios go)but doing a deal for Bedard,a proven ace would be better if you have to give up talent.To compete with the Bosox,we need top drawer talent not potential.Maybe offering up Rios and McGowen and a prospect wouldn’t be to steep if you could get Uncle Ted to pony up an extension for Bedard.

Alright, haven’t been around for a while, my thoughts on the Jays offseason.

DoLuca would be good . . . on a one year deal. If the Jays are out of it and either Diaz or Thigpen are ready then you can dump DoLuca in July to a contender loking for an extra bat off the bench, and give the kids some time to learn at this big league level.

Lincecum(sp?) for Rios, I’d do it. not because I think Lincecum will have a better career than Rios (or that I wouldn’t prefer Cain) but because A) pitching wins, and the cost of pitching is high -that’s reality – it’d be nice if JP had done a better job drafting pitching, but the truth is he hasn’t drafted a single front of the rotation arm (McGowan wasn’t his)

B) $$$$$$$$$$$$$$, and I thought this when they signed Wells, at this rate it’ll take 150-200 mil to sign Rios to a 7 year extension when he’s a year away from free agency (that’s where Wells was last year), they can’t afford it – they could if they wanted to, but will choose not to.

C) the post Doc era, as Jeff Blair has pointed out, the time has come to start planning for when Doc reaches the decline phase of his career. Right now they have McGowan (future #1/2) and Marcum (3/4), they need another 1/2 type – Lincecum fits the bill, though I’d prefer Cain (it’s worth repeating).

gsumner:

Easy there tiger! I know all about the Rule 5 “rules”. The Jays have picked up some good/useful guys in the past with the Rule 5, including one of my favourite players as a kid, Mr. George Bell!

So, no, I still don’t think it was a bad pickup. For all the reasons I mentioned earlier, I still think Wells has much more upside than both Taubenheim and Gronk.

As for whose spot Wells would take on the 25 man roster, I think he could make things interesting for guys like Frasor, Wolfe, and League. Frasor has problems with consistency, Wolfe might not be able to repeat last year’s awesome second half, and League still hasn’t proven he can be the same pitcher he was before his injury. Wells also provides some insurance in case of some random injury, in case it takes Ryan longer to come back than expected, and in case Jannsen ends up back in the starting five.

Look, I’m not expecting miracles from this guy Wells. I’m thinking he might be the 11th or 12th man out of the pen or maybe he’ll be a pleasant surprise like Wolfe was last year. Who knows? But no offense to Ty and Gronk, but I think he’s got more potential than both of them. And if he doesn’t crack the roster, who cares? 25 grand is peanuts to Mr. Ted Rogers!

Loduca in my opinion is the best option out there to split time with Zaun this year. He is relatively cheap, a veteran, is decent defensively and is in the plans for one year only. They should leave Diaz and Thigpen in AAA all year to compete against one another. Winner goes to the big club in 09 after Zaun is done and the loser is traded. As of right now it would be a waste for one of them to play once a week with the Jays and neither are ready to start.

Rios for Lincecum… I like it. Not because I want to see Rios leave as he is our best player but because good pitching beats good hitting every time. We can’t beat the Yanks or Sox in a slug match so we have to sparkle on the mound and get some clutch hitting (Denbo should help with this). I think JP knows he needs to have a few studs in the field that can hit and field like Wells of 06 and the rest of the talent should come from the mound. If or when this deal gets done we would need another outfielder cause Lind could buckle not to mention his defensive short comings. Stairs is another year older and Johnson is a question mark with his back. With no one in the minors to help out I think you NEED another fielder.

robertlee:

I totally agree with your thinking on Lincecum for Rios. When you’ve got guys like Mark Redman still in the majors and making big bucks, you know pitching’s at a huge premium! So, yeah, as tough as it is to part with Rios, I think this trade is worth the risk.

I don’t think, however, that Rios will cost that much in the next couple of years. If you look at Wells’ (Vernon, not Randy!) contract history on this page (http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/toronto-blue-jays_05.html) you’ll notice he got an “inexpensive” long term contract from ’03-’07 before he signed that mammoth thing last year. Seeing as Rios is in the same situation now, I don’t think he’ll demand the $150 mil salary just yet. But 4 or 5 years from now? WATCH OUT!

Not sure why that link didn’t work. If you’re interested, google Cot’s Baseball Contracts and then hit “Blue Jays” on the left.

Cheers!

Speaking as someone Ted Rogers pays more than $25k to (on an anual basis) it is peanuts to him.

robertlee.ask for a raise lol.

rshobie

lay off gsumner if it wasn’t for him this blog never would have taken off,If you think he is wrong say so and why so we can see what you think you know don’t slam him.

The jays should trade Zaun sign a good catcher bring up Dias as a backup for three years leave Thigpen at AAA and train him at third he will be good on DEF and has a good arm.

Keep Rios and make a deal with a NL team to get Bedard from the O’s other teams do it and Rodgers can afford it.

GSUMNER

Puts more time into research than anyone and posts it here for us to enjoy so please lets treat him with respect thank you.hemgold

Yes you to on research.

Ha, lol,
I said he pays me more than 25k, I didn’t say how much more because I don’t like talking about money.

Sufice to say, I earn a good living for a 22 year old on his first job out of college.

I’ll be back later, back to work

In theory, I don’t think it would be too bad to have a platoon of Zaun/LoDuca. Sure, they’re both getting old and Lo Duca’s arm is only marginally better than Zaun’s, but at least they’re both veteran guys who know how to handle a pitching staff. The Jays’ young staff (especially their bullpen) will really benefit from that veteran presence behind the plate. Also, with Diaz and Thigpen waiting in the minors, the Jays really only need a stopgap solution for this one year and I think the two young guys will benefit more from everyday play in the minors than sitting on the bench in the majors.

With that being said, I don’t see either Zaun or Lo Duca being especially happy about splitting time with someone else. Lo Duca’s been a starter for years (with better numbers than Zaun) and Zaun feels as if he’s earned the top dog spot after so many years as a backup. I dunno — sounds like having them both on the team is a remedy for conflict, but who knows? Maybe they’re both “professionals” who will do what’s “best for the team”…..

Also, I like thegarryguy’s stance on moving Thigpen into the infield. I haven’t heard much about moving him to 3B, but him playing second has been floated around. Maybe he could be a poor man’s Craig Biggio?

I see Thigpen being something like Brandon Inge….Could be a ok 3rd baseman.

I’d completely forgotten that Inge had been a catcher! Not a bad comparison, although I’d bet Thigpen would have less power than Inge and hit for a better average….

Another reason to get Lincicum is that Halladay from the looks of things can have an influence on a younger guy. People are talking about Burnett being more of a pitcher now instead of a “thrower” and i’m willing to bet halladay had something to do with that. I’m sure he can be somewhat of a mentor to either Cain or Lincicum as well.

To enigma’s point of Halladay being a mentor,
Who better to establish a work ethic in Lincecum that would help him stay healthy despite his herky jerky mechanics.

As much as I’d love to see this trade between Rios and Lincecum happen, I think the Giants would be crazy to give up an arm like that. But then, crazier things have happened in the past…

I don’t get why JP doesn’t include something more to get the Giants to give up Linceum. Rios is great, but honestly, linceum ? He’s amazing, and 3 years from now well pay a huge bucks to land a guy like that.

Instead of letting these washup pitchers like Gronk and Ty go, why not throw them into deals ?

To get Matt Cain, id give Sabean: Gronk, Ty, Towers and Rios ! Not only would we get an awesome pitcher, but we could have made some room to pick up rule 5 guys, and we’d have cleaned out our closet of **** and got Sanfran to take it to the curb for us. (Rios excepted of course)

Hey, Maybe GSumner can speak to this.

Whatta bout the the guy we got in the AAA part of the Rule 5 draft, SS Marcos Cabral ? Seems like a solid hitter, his stats seem really decent. How does it work with the AAA portion of the draft ?

Dave, please tell me you’re being sarcastic.

Is there anyone out there who actualy thinks that Ty or Gronk or Towers have any value?

Because if you do, you’re wrong.

just toss my hat in the ring here with a few thoughts..
1) dave6998, nobody wants prospects like taubenheim, gronk, and towers in a deal with rios, that doesnt make it more tempting, players are players, they want can’t-miss prospects, which the three people you mentioned are absolutely not.

b)personally, i hate to see rios go, but with the kind of pitching we will need to be able to beat the yankees and red sox, it is a trade that must be done. this trade doesn’t necessarily mean we will compete immediately, but in 2-3 years when Travis Snider is Big-League ready, our team/rotation will also be ready. give it time, but when Lincecum becomes the next Roger Clemens for Toronto, you’ll see why this trade was done.

Here’s another thought: we don’t have to beat the Yankees and the Red Sox. All we have to do is win 96 or so games in 2008. That’s different. Yes, when we get to the playoffs, we need to beat those teams, but we may be able to make a better deal around the trade deadline when good pitchers are heading for free agency.
Here is another thought: the Jays were 7th in attendance last year but 10th in payroll according to the USA today payroll database. They only list the Jays at 81.9, but that may only be the 25 man roster. Anyway, Seattle held the 7th payroll spot with a payroll of 106 mil. The Jays have about 22 mil of wiggle room here, and it has always been rumored that if we are in contention, there is some more money hidden in the sugar bowl to help us over the top.

rshobie: we don’t engage in personal attacks on the posters here. If you wouldn’t say it to their face in polite company, don’t post it here. If you feel that you can’t live by those standards, or if you have no inkling what polite company is, I hereby invite you to move along to another blog.

Dave:

I’ve got to agree with RobertLee and Justin on this one. Ty, Gronk, and Towers are waiver fodder — they really wouldn’t sweeten a deal with San Fran.

That isn’t to say that those guys couldn’t one day turn it around and maybe contribute somewhere, but right now their trade value is extremely low.

And speaking of Towers, has anyone heard anything more about him being traded? For awhile there was some chatter about him heading to San Diego for, well, just about anything, but I’ve heard nothing since….

dave

If anyone would like to review Marcos Cabral stats go to the following url: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Marcos%20Cabral&pos=2B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=445922

Marcos was drafted by The Mets in 2002 as a high school player out of Miami. He is scouted as a great defensive player. Washington signed him as a minor league free agent in November 2006 and played him at 2nd instead of short at their A+ affiliate-Hagerstown in the Sally Ann League-our equivalent of Dunedin, in 2007.

It appears he knows the strike zone-with 49 walks in 105 games and he also knows how to stike out with 68k’s. Reasonable BA at .288 good OBP at .374 and a little bit of pop with slugging at .402.

If you’d like to see all the rule 5 draftees go to the following url: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/winter_meetings/y2007/index.jsp?mc=rule5

You’ll notice Syracuse made two picks, Cabral and Brant Colamarino from Sacramento.

I like Cabral a lot but do not like Colamarino-who plays first base. Colaramarino likely means Syracuse will be non-tendering Kevin Barker-which is a good idea since he’s already 32. I question, though, why we drafted Colaramarino when Chip Cannon (our AA 1st base guy) hit 17 hr’s in 2007 and had a similar BA to Colaramarino.

Also our “A” class 1st baseman Josh Kreuzer won Player of the year in the FSL, hit .309, 20 Hr’s, 71 RBI’s and is due for a promotion-which means AA. I’m not sure if either of Cannon and Kreuzer have what it takes to get to the bigs, but I see no reason to block their efforts to get there either.

If we are going to trade Rios, why not get serious and go after Santana-who’s the guy we really need.

The deal with Towers was that San Diego wanted hime for a player (aka “a nobody” aka “a waste of a minor-league roster spot”) to be named later.
He’s more valueable to us as insurance than whatever we’d get for him.

As for Santana, everything I’ve read is that the only tems he’s told the Twins he’d definitly waive his no-trade clause to go to are the Yanks and the Sox.

Plus look at it like this, We’d have to trade Rios and McGowan for Sanatana. If McGowan is going to win 15+ games (reasonable) and Santana will win 20+ than we’d be paying Rios and $20 million per year for 5 wins.

When you’re the Sox and Yanks and the $20 mil is meaningless you can do it, when your the Jay’s you can’t.

Robert

I don’t think we know what San Diego offered except to take $3 mill. of wasted money spent on Towers off our payroll-that alone is a great deal.

Offering McGowan and Rios is too much and a lot more than that being offered by anyone else. I think an offer of Rios and Litsch is more than currently being offered-considering Rios is already an All-Star.

We can afford to pay Santana $20 mill. per year, remember it’s an extension to his contract starting in 2010. By that time Thomas,Glaus and possibly Burnett will already be off our payroll.

A starting rotation of Halliday, Santana,Marcum, McGowan and Burnett probably makes us a contender.

Woops, his contract extension in 2009-not 2010. So Burnett is likely gone, and the deal could be structured so the real money doesnt kick in until 2010.

I don’t like Lincecum. Every scouting report I’ve read about him calls him a Tommy John surgury in progress. How would you like to trade your very best offensive player and then lose the pitcher for 18 months to 2 years?

I think the Jays are looking at young pitchers like Lincecum instead of an established star like Santana for economic reasons, pure and simple. Lincecum could be held onto for cheap for 4 or 5 years, whereas Santana demands a monster salary. Also, Lincecum is supposed to have McGowan-esque stuff, yet he’s younger, under management control for longer, and already has about the same amount of big league experience as McGowan. Not too shabby.

And I really think the Jays would have to offer much more than Rios and a fifth starter like Litsch to land Santana. The Twins are looking not only for an established big leaguer or two, but also some high-level prospects. The Jays (in my opinion) just don’t have a deep enough farm system to swing that kind of deal without crippling themselves for years to come.

Well economics are one think, contending is another, and health is more important than either. Santana is a proven quantity in the LA, lincecum isn’t. Tradionally pitcher era’s rise when coming to the AL versus the NL and Lincecum’s stuff is not McGowan like.

Boston have offered Lester and Ellsbury as their main offerings. Lester’s era over two seasons is 4.57 and there has to be some concern about a re-occurance. Litsch is young, healthy and carries an era of 3.81-a better starter than Lester by far. He’s also better than a prospect because he is proven.

Rio is is a proven all-star-Ellsbury is a maybe and limited power. I like our offer better and I expect Minni would to.

hem

Well, it sure looks like Boston like Gronk-I hope he does become their 7th inning specialist. I’m sure what they really like is the fact we gave him to them for nothing in return.

I also noticed the Pirates put Ty on their 40 man roster and have expectations he’ll compete for a job in the starting rotation.

Yep, I guess what some people call dime a dozen kind of prospects is steak dinner to others.

Thanks for the article.

When it comes right down to it, I don’t think the Twins are interested in Rios. Sure, he’s an incredible player, but he’s not what they’re looking for right now. All the Santana rumours that have been floating around involve younger players who are years away from arbitration — major league ready prospects like Ellsbury, Lester, Hughes, Kennedy, Lowrie, and that dude who pitched a no-hitter for Boston. To put it simply, they want the trade to revolve around young, cheap guys who won’t be going anywhere any time soon.

Rios, although he’ll likely be a better player than some of those other guys, is already in arbitration and is only a couple of years from free agency. The Twins don’t want to deal with that. They want young and major league ready, but far from free agency and bigger bucks….

Yeah, I’m glad Taubenheim’s getting his chance with the Pirates. He was so far down the depth chart in Toronto that his chances of breaking with the team were slim. The Pirates, though, are pitching starved and financially strapped, so he’ll definitely get his shot to make an impact….

Lincecum’s stuff is, to say the least, on par with McGowan’s. his fastball reaches mid-90s with a slight upshoot at the end. Pair that with his nasty tignt power curve, a lot of the hitters will not be able to make contact (in 146.1 innnings, he struck out 150 hitters). His changeup is a work in progress. Stuff-wise he reminds me of our very own, A.J. Burnett.
If we bring him here and harness him with more control and maturity, by 2009 we’ll have three aces topping our rotation (Hallada, McGowan, and Lincecum, assuming Burnett opts out). And I’m willing to part with Rios for that.

caleb

You under estimate McGowan. McGowan has 4-5 pitches. His fastball tops at 100, he has 2 nasty curve/slider type pitches, his changeup is not a work in progress and he’s already had Tommy John surgury-there’s no comparision between the two.

Lincecum has a serious mechanical problem in his delivery which will lead to injury-that you can bet on.

The other important issue is, we need at least one left handed starter to beat Boston and New York. Remember how effective Ted Lilly and Chachin were against Boston. We used to win our season series with Boston with them in the rotation-we don’t now.

Would you not prefer Santana to Lincecum?

Hem

I still like our offering of Rios and Litcsh better than what Boston or New York offered them. Litsch won’t be going anywhere soon and Rios could be signed for 4-5 years and still quite cost effective, considering the production he brings. He also becomes a valuable trading chip for them if they decide in a year or so to move on.

If they don’t like him, we could offer Lind instead. Lind and Litsch is equivalent to what Boston offered.

The point is you and I will never know unless JP calls and makes the offer. Who knows what they want-so far what’s been offered hasn’t got the deal done.

Hem

Actually, for Santana, I’d even be prepared to offer Lind, Snider and Litsch and keep Rios if they wanted prospects. Snider is likely only 1 year away and he will be a good one.

Santana makes us a contender-this year.

I’m sure we’d all prefer Santana, but it’s just not going to happen. Even if the Jays can aford him they will choose not to.

As for what it’d take to get him, Hughes is viewed as equal to McGowan, Cabrera is clearly not as good as Rios. But right now Hughes and Cabrera isn’t good enough to get the twins to bite.

Lester and Crisp also clearly inferior to McGowan and Rios, also not enough to get the Twins to bite.

They want 2 of Bucholtz Lester and Elsbury, Buchholtz is considered a stud (like McGowan and Hughes) and Elsbury is projected to be not much less than Rios, so I think it would take Rios and McGowan.

And then there’s the consideration of wether Santana would even agree to come here . . .

Gsumner: Look, I didn’t post the message to argue Lincecum is better than McGowan. I just did it to show that we could have 3 top-of-the-rotation guys in the near future if we made the move.
But since you seem to be worried about Lincecum’s health, let me make a case against that.

First of all, just because Lincecum has a different mechanics doesn’t mean his is problematic. In fact, most of the concerns about Lincecum’s health come from his small stature rather than his mechanics. His mechanics was developed to compensate for his smallness (e.g. the violent rotation of his hip and back).

Second, he doesn’t have a messy injury history. He’s had one injury in the minors, which wasn’t related to pitching or his mechanics – he got it from swinging the bat.

I fully acknowledge that Lincecum could get injured down the line – just like any other pitcher. It’s just that, even if Lincecum has a problem in his mechanics, you can’t “bet on” his injury based solely on that. A lot of other pitchers don’t seem to have problems in their mechanics, but they get hurt all the time (McGowan who had TJ surgery as you pointed out). Simply said, you can’t pass on a prospect like that just because you are scared of injuries that may or may not happen.

And I’m not even gonna argue about Santana because it’s just not realistic that he would come here.

caleb

Well, actually you did state his stuff was McGowan like and it isn’t. Read the scouting reports on Lincecum. Almost every one of them say the same thing. He’s a Tommy John surgury candidate sooner than later, because of his mechanics.

Robert

Hughes equal to McGowan-please he’s not even close. Same with Buchholtz; he’s a nice enough pitcher just like Hughes is but neither of them can bring it like Dustin can-very few can. McGowan is in a class of his own as the next few years will show.

Ellsbury does’t have the power RIos has; he’ll likely hit for good average but tops out with 15 to 20 Hr’s per year. Doesn’t have Rios’s arm either.

You never know what they’ll take until it’s offered. I say lets try.

Santana would come here or anyplace else that offers him 20 mill for 5-6 years. Why-well it means his salary is guaranteed for the length of the contract. If he stays in Minni and gets hurt this year, his free agency opportunities and money drop significantly.

The other real point on Lincecum to consider is,he would be the 5th right handed starter we field. Considering we only have Downs until Ryan gets back in June does anyone really think we can contend with 11 right handers and 1 lefty.

No likely-we really need a lefty starter.

Does anybody remember Gustavo Chacin? He’s 15-8 with the Jays when he’s healthy, and he’s definitely in the mix for a starting spot. I can also see him as a long reliever, especially with 5 righties in the rotation.
Besides, our problem isn’t pitching. We didn’t get blown away a lot last year, and our pitching staff almost always kept us in the game. Our problem was hitting, specifically situational hitting–the ability to hit with runners on base. If it was my problem, I think I would let the guys swing a bit more instead of worrying about working deep into the count. I hope Gary Denbo knows how to fix it, because that’s ultimately what brought about Mickey Brantley’s demise.

It looks like Eric Gagne will sign a 1 year deal with Milwaukee for around 10 million. He has pitched 15 innings over the past 2 seasons. I guess that’s what a reclamation project costs these days

I wonder why no one in the baseball world shows enthusiasm on McGowan, if he is indeed way better than everybody else like Gsumner says.

If you believe what J.p. says a lot of people asked about McGowan. Why wouldn’t they ? he’s definitaly got the potential to be an ace of a staff.

Sumner,

The Pirates are a terrible team, i’m sure if they had Towers he’d get a shot at the rotation too, it doesn’t mean TY is going to be the biggest surprise of the year. Even if he does put up decent numbers, he’s now in the national league (not as difficult as pitching in the american leauge)

enigma

Actually, I’m happy for Ty and hope he does well. Remember, my whole complaint about Gronk-who now looks to be Boston’s 7th inning guy and Ty-who now looks like he might be a starter for the Pirates is the fact we gave them away for nothing in return.

I do expect Ty to put up decent numbers; when he went down to AA, he responded extremely well.

But my point is, national or american league, we could have got something-like position player prospects for these guys and we didn’t.

I don’t think I’d be defending that Blue Jays management position, if I was you, because it stinks.

enigma:

I agree entirely about Ty. He’s basically getting a shot with the Pirates because, well, they’re a last place team with a terrible pitching staff. If Towers does get let go, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pirates gave him a shot, too. He tries hard, has had some success in the past, and is “relatively” cheap.

Caleb:

I really like your assessment of Lincecum’s “supposed” potential injury problems. Sure, he’s a risk, but signing any pitcher is a huge risk these days with the bloated salaries of mediocre arms and the huge physical strain pitchers put on themselves. Although parting with Rios would be tough to do, I think it’s worth it for Lincecum’s potential alone.

gnorman:

Gagne for 10 million? Yikes! That’s brutal, the pitching market is out-of-control. The Brewers better have a lot of incentives based on innings-pitched in that contract….

gnorman

I agree with your assessment, pitching is not the issue, it’s situational hitting. In the last half, this year our pitching staff ranked in the top 3 in baseball and we still struggled to play 500 baseball.

This year, Boston won 96 games and will likely be stronger in 2008 versus 2007.

New York won 94 games and should be a lot stronger in 2008 because of their young pitching staff.

Cleveland won 96 games, and I don’t see them getting any weaker.

California won 94 games and have really helped themselves with the signing of Hunter.

Detroit won 88 games and now look like a powerhouse for 2008 with the Cabrerra trade.

Tampa Bay have made significant improvements to their rotation and pen and will be much stronger in 2008.

We won 83 games. And if we’re going to contend for the wild card, we probably have to knock off Detroit and New York.

I don’t think we get there just by hoping all our guys come back healthy.

RISP Stats 2007

Toronto

Rios: .297

Hill: .291

Stairs: .289

Thomas: .277

Glaus: .262

McDonald: .251

Wells; .245

Zaun: .242

Overbay: .240

Johnson: .236

Boston

Jacoby Ellsbury: .351

David Ortiz:.332

Mike Lowell: .324

Dustin Pedrolia: .317

Manny Ramirez: .296

Kevin Youkilis: .288

J. Drew: .277

Jason Varitek: .255

Julio Lugo: .236

New York

Jorge Posada: .338

Derek Jeiter: .322

Alex Rodriguez: .314

Robinson Cano: .306

H. Matsui: .285

Bobby Abreu: .283

Melky Cabrerra: .273

Johnny Damon: .270

Jason Giambi: .236

No question, Gary Denbo has his job cut out for him.

Catchers RISP

Zaun: .242

Lo Duca: .272

Robinson Diaz: .400-Syracuse

The most surprising thing so far in this offseason (barring the megatrade between the tigers and the marlins), is the Rays’ effort to improve their team. With the acquisition of Garza and Percival, their pitching staff is much more stabilized. Combine that with the offense they have, they’ve got a much more potent team than before. They still have holes in the back end of their starting rotation and their bullpen, but I think the Rays are not to be ignored. That’s exactly what we needed eh? – more competition in the AL East..

As for the orioles…I can only sympathize..

caleb

I agree with you on the Rays-they will be much stronger this year. They claim not to be done yet, so we shall see.

The other thing about them is they appear to have some strong prospects in their farm system from so many years of drafting high-it’s not surprising.

They trade Delmon Young and have a ready replacement in Justin Ruggiano, a AAA All-Star ready to make the jump.

They claim to be looking for a lefty for their pen. Maybe we could trade Tallet for one of their AA/AAA prospects-Evan Longoria-a 3rd baseman; .299 Ba/.402 OBP/.921 OPS, 26 Hr’s and 95 RBI’s.

Could be a nice replacement for Glaus in a year or so-check him out and tell me what you think.

Are you kidding?

Evan Longoria is one of the top-prospects in all of baseball and you want to trade for him in exchange for Brian freaking Tallet??????

Besides I read that they’re going to move Iwamura to 2nd so Longoria can be their 3rd basemen this year.

I give you credit for recognising who the best prospects are but your trade proposals need some work.

Sorry Gsumner, definitely going to have to agree with RobertLee there! ARE YOU SERIOUS?!? Longoria is indeed one of the top prospects in ALL OF BASEBALL. The only players TB might give up Longoria for on the Jays are our untouchables or core players. I wouldn’t even trade him for your beloved Litsch. Tallet is definitely not going to garner a lot in return…

Hey Robert

Instead of just bashing, why don’t you come up with some origional ideas or at least origional posts, or is that too difficult?

You don’t want to get a reputation of just being a jerk, do you?

Oh ya, and next time before you post-you might want to at least check their 40 man roster because Longoria isn’t on it.

Duh!!!!!!!

joe

“My beloved Litsch”. Another comedian. Man, the abuse I take on here for just trying to get guys to post.

What every happened to Garry and Bosox?

Hey Gsumner,

I wish we could get Longoria, but he’s def one of the rays cornerstone players for the next five years.

I do think your right in indentifying their need for a left handed specialist/bullp guy. Their pen is bull ****. Tallet would def mix well in there and give them a cheap option as resident lefty.

I would have to say i would want Iwamura for Tallet. Take on Iwamura’s salary and i think it would be a deal. He’s not a great player, but he’s definetly better then average and a lefty ! With Longoria comming up soon, the Rays are having a logjam prob in the infield and Iwamura is the most expensive guy they have and def not the best. He could take over for Glaus if we managed to ship him out.

For those who think players wont garner a return because they aren’t seen as being great players on our team, doesn’t mean other teams don’t see them as useful. I.e.Ty can walk into a starting job in Pitsburgh.

It’s all about relative value. The players value, relative to the other players who can do the same job on the team.

Now when you look at the Rays,

they have two lefties, Jeff Ridgway and Birken — and Ridgway has an era of 189.00, Birken has a non-respectable 7 something. Tallet dominates those guys.

Does Tallet **** compared to Downs ? Yeah, but, would the Rays love to have Tallet instead of there two jokers ? Heck yah !

I like trade ideas G, their controversial, and get people to think about possibilites, which are much more interesting.

Ty will not walk on to a starting job in pittsburg, he has to earn it still. And when you trade players like that the best your going to get in return, is a low prospect, who might make it too AAA or the be a fringe player in the Majors, something you can replace almost every year through the draft…

I think Evan Longoria is not on Tampa’s 40 man roster for the same reason that Jed Lowrie isn’t on Boston’s: he doesn’t have to be because he was drafted out of college in the past 3 years.

And here’s a scouting report on Longoria:

http://www.projectprospect.com/evan-longoria-scouting-report/

Unfortunately, I think Longoria’s worth quite a bit more than Tallet. Tallet can be a useful guy coming out of the pen, but his stuff won’t wow anyone, he can be pretty inconsistent, and he can’t be used as a lefty specialist (lefties hit .349 off of him last year). As a result, even for teams who desperately need a lefty in their pen, Tallet won’t demand much in a trade. I think he’s the kind of guy you’ll see bounce around the league a bunch throughout his career. He’ll contribute every now and then, but I doubt he’ll ever be a top notch reliever.

Also, I’m not sure it would be wise for the Jays to try and deal one of the few left-handed relievers they have. Tallet isn’t too impressive, but at least he provides another option for the righty dominated staff. With that said, I think Tallet will really have to impress at spring training to stick with the Jays. If he doesn’t, he’ll probably end up back in AAA or he might get released outright….

Hem

You are right about why Longoria is not on Tampa’s 40 man roster. I just wanted to see if Robert kenw that since he came accross as the big expert of all time. lol

He certainly would be a nice pice to have-though wouldn’t he.

dave

You’re right-it’s all about relative value. Boston had a need for a 7th inning guy and grabbed Gronk. Pittsburg had a need for a starter and grabbed Ty. In both cases we didn’t value these guys very high, but they valued them high enough to grab them.

One never knows where the discussion will go when a trade is discussed. I think Tampa are also looking for a left handed bat in the outfield, so there are a couple of pieces they feel they need.

I do realize Evan Longoria is a highly touted prospect, which is why I’d like to get him, along with Lowrie from Boston. I think both of them could play up here this coming year.

Evan was ranked 2nd in the Arizona Fall League “top Prospects”; right in front of our Travis Snider who ranked 3rd. He is also ranked in the top 10 prospects by Baseball America.

gsumner:

I agree that different teams will go for different guys because of “relative value”. Before the Jays signed Scuataro, for example, they really wanted a cheap utility infielder. So they went out and picked up guys like Ray Olmedo, Joe Inglett, Jason Smith, and Hector Luna. Their “relative value” to the Jays was important, but at the same time, they didn’t want to break the bank filling that position. So they claimed all those guys from the waiver wire and through Rule 5, just to see if they threw them against the wall, they might just stick. Unfortunately, none of those guys really worked out and the Jays are happy they didn’t trade anyone away to get those guys….

So I guess my point is that it’s the same with guys like Gronk, Ty, and Tallet. They do have “relative value” to certain teams, but they’re also cheap options that, chances are, likely won’t work out. But on the slim chance that they do work out, it’s gold! They sifted through the scrap heap and found something cheap and useful. So just as the Jays wouldn’t have traded anyone away last year to pick up Luna, Olmedo, Smith, and Inglett, I find it very unlikely the Jays could get anything worthwhile in return for guys like Gronk, Ty, and Tallet. Why trade for an unproven guy, when you can pick up countless unproven guys in the scrapheap?

I have an original idea.

I’m going to continue being a fan, and sit back and wait with intrigue to see what the Jays to in an attempt to improve the club.

Last I checked this blog was conected to MLB.com, not MLBfantasy.com.

oops, I meant what the Jays *do* in an attempt to improve

Ouch. In typical abrasive Wilner fashion, Wilner just ripped into some poor guy’s Rios & Litsch for Santana trade proposal:

http://blog.rogersradiointernet.com/mikewilner/2007/12/09/dont-you-forget-about-me/

One thing’s for sure, Wilner doesn’t mince his words….

Hem

You’re starting to make me wonder whether you’re part of the Jays, the way you’re defending them for giving away Ty and Gronk.

How does anyone know what they could have got-since they never even tried?

As I said to others-why don’t

we take a look at this at the break and see what Gronk and Ty do for other teams-in the meantime we will agree to disagree-how’s that?

I do work for the Jays. My real name is J.P. Ricciardi. I like to check out the blogs every now and then. You know, see what the fans are saying….

And, yeah, I’ll keep an eye on Gronk and Ty for ya…..

And out of curiousity, how can you possibly know that the Jays never tried to deal Gronk and Ty? Maybe they gave it a shot, no one bit, and then after some serious “pondering”, they let them drop for guys who they consider to have more potential?

GASP!!!!!!!!

Hem, how dare you suggest gsumner might be ignorant.

He knows everything!!!!!!!

EVERYTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

robert

Be careful, your inmaturity and ignorance are becoming quite apparent.

hem

Well, they knew they had a bite on Ty-since Pittsburg claimed him off of waivers.

Hey, I’m glad you’re JP, now if there’s any decision made I don’t like, I’ll just whine at ya. lol

I find it hard to believe people are still talking about Ty. Give it a rest already, if he does end up doing well you can rip them all you want sumner but for now, it’s a no impact move. I’m willing to bed the pirates werent willing to give anything up for him, but once he ended up on waivers they figured “why not” and claimed him. It does not mean that they were willing to give anything of significance to the jays had they pursued a trade. This is turning out to be almost as bad as the leafs putting Bates Battaglia on waivers lol.

bed=bet

Yeah, I really can’t believe how much time I’ve been wasting arguing about Gronk and Taubenheim. Waiting for my new job to start in the New Year is driving me crazy!

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