Bastian's 2009 Predictions

I would love to see Halladay take the Cy Young. I hope the Jays can get enough wins for him !

Greg
http://baseballfix.mlblogs.com/

According to Jordan -- a last place team is going to have the Cy Young winner. No matter how you analyze it, that makes no sense. If Jordan believes that the Jays are so bad that they will finish last in the league, they have no reasonable, logical choice but to trade him at the trade deadline in order to improve the team, long-term. Every other small market team in the states would move him, if they finished in last place. Why? Because they do not want to finish in last place the following year!

Asking fans to pay hard dollars in this economy so that they can see Roy Halladay go 18-10 makes no sense. Asking them to pay hard dollars to see a young team of highly-touted prospects e.g., Snider makes much more sense, in my opinion. Let's stop making Halladay into something he is not. He is a very good pitcher that can do more to help this team via a "good trade" i.e., one not made by JP than he can giving us 18 wins on a last place club!

The concern I have about holding anyone to trade at the trading deadling is, I think there will be some huge fire sales at that time.
Attendance is going to drop throughout baseball as a result of the recession (estimates of a 10-20% drop) and a whole pile of teams will unload contracts if they don't feel they have a chance at the playoffs.
So let's trade them now, holding on to to any veterans until the trading deadline is only going to cost us.
That being said, I tend to think we might slip into 4th place instead of 5th, but I also still think we should bring up the rest of young guys like Emaus, Campbell and Arrencibia and trade Rolens, Overbay, Wells, Halliday and Barajas NOW. Put Hill at ss, Campbell at 2nd, Emaus at 3rd, Arrencibia at catcher and Lind at 1st base-until Cooper is ready.
Bring up Cecil or Janssen in Mid May to replace Halliday.

If we want to compete in 2011, (we can forget 2010-cause that isn't happening), then we need to bring these kids up NOW and play them.

Assuming TB, Baltimore and Toronto are all holding some rookies in AAA until May and then call up Cecil, David Price, Arencibia and Wieters, the ROY award this year could be the most competitive it's been for quite some time.

Cito is musing about Romero having a shot, and I think Snider could really be in the mix. Snider hit 4 hr.'s, 8 doubles and drove in 10 in 63 at bats in spring training. He also appeared to get stronger as spring training went on. So if he stays healthy and gets 550 to 600 at bats, the numbers he puts up could be staggering, although, I doubt Snider ever hits for high average.
In my view Snider's biggest competition comes from David Price. If Tampa Bay call him up early May, Price would be my pick for ROY, if they don't Snider's my guy.

I agree with Jb' s pick for MVP, but I'd pick AJ Burnett for the Cy Young. I think AJ learnt a lot from Halliday and with that offense behind him, could win every game he starts.
I expect Sabathia will show signs of the huge load he took last year and be injured by the All-Star break and I expect it to be serious.

If Cito keeps this team close and wins more than 85 games he should be Manager of the year-but this is the most political of all awards-so it doesn't always go to the right guy.

The Jays aren't finishing last in the AL East.

No way. No how.

Hey, if Halladay wins 20+ and the Jays win around 70-75 games and finish last in the East, then sure he can win the CY. It could happen, and there's a chance it might. You never know. Baseball is a funny game.

~JB

Potential Red Sox Trades from SI-Truth & Rumors

David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek are down enough because of age/injury that Boston must use its young pitching stockpile to obtain an offensive player to keep up with the Rays and Yankees in the AL East.

The Red Sox try to obtain Chris Iannetta from the Rockies, but end up with Jarrod Saltalamacchia from the Rangers and Alex Rios from the Blue Jays.
Toronto is willing to trade Rios in the division because it is financially distressed and the Red Sox are willing to not only take on the five years at $59.7 million left on Rios beyond this season, but also the $10 million owed B.J. Ryan next year.
That enables Toronto to table the decision whether to set off a dramatic bidding war for ace Roy Halladay until the offseason.
New York Post

**Dumping Ryan and his salary I agree with, but let's dump Wells instead of Rios.

I think I agree with Jordan's picks, except I'd take Atlanta ahead of Florida and Chicago ahead of Detroit.

As for AL East, I think the Rays won't repeat last year. If I'm not mistaken their offense was very similar statistically to the Jays last year, and so was their pitching, even with their surprise bullpen performance. On the flip side, I think the Jays will surprise, so I'll say Yankees, Red Sox, Jays, Rays, O's.

Of course, I'll be wrong and so will Jordan and pretty much everyone else who tries to predict the season's outcome. Too many variables involved.

Thanks Jordan!
Your picks in previous years have been no wear close, so by the looks of things the Jays, with the exception of Halladay will have a super year. Haha. Thanks for all the great work this spring it was much apprecited!

Your NL picks last year were pretty close, Jordan. After all, if you were 100% all the time, we wouldn't have to play the games, right? If I may ask, what's Casey Jansen"s status right now? He seems to have disappeared into a black hole.

Like i said Shef.would get a job right away and he did.
I also said Clemment was done and he is.
Boston

* Jays

Yanks

Rays

Balt.

* wildcard.

MVP- Wells.
CY- Doc.
ROY-Snider.
MOTY- Cito.

JB. if you are not a fan of the Jays why do you write for them????????????.

If i'm not mistaken, beat writers are assigned by MLB to different teams, and they are rotated every few years to give a fresh spin on the organization. Was our last one Spencer Fordin? Also I liked our last writer, but I think JB has been even better at updating us on the Jays and getting interesting interviews with the players. Keep up the good work JB!

I also like Jordan it was just a question.

I'm still not buying all the Tampa Bay love. Yes the team is good, but last year was thing falling into place at the right time. They won the most one run games in the majors last year and got career years out of a number of players. Yes they have a number of good guys but they are being hyped way above what they can achieve.

As for AJ Burnett winning the Cy Young? The guy will break down before the All Star break. Cito pitched him into the ground last season, and he benefited from the defence behind him.

As well, that rumour about Rios going to Boston because the Jays are cash strapped is someone making stuff up (surprise NY Post!). Didn't Beeston come out just the other day say he has upwards of $120M available if he so chooses. I believe Beeston over some NY Post writer.

Well, we finally find out how much we offered Millar.

1 year/$0.85M (2009)
performance bonuses: $50,000 each for 200, 250, 300 PAs.

To whoever asked: "JB. if you are not a fan of the Jays why do you write for them????????????." here's the reason.

If you're a fan of the team you cover and show it, you're not a professional journalist; you're a flack, a PR guy, a mouthpiece for the club.

Last year Cliff Lee won the Cy on a mediocre ( .500 ) Cleveland Indian's team in an easier division. If the Jay's offence beings their bats to the games, there is no reason Doc can't win the Cy . I think he deserved it last yr, managing 20 wins with no support from the offence . NY Times has a great article about Halladay , even they believe he is the best pitcher in baseball

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/05/sports/baseball/05halladay.html?_r=2&ref=baseball

i am a huge fan of the jays been so since 1991 i think you are doing a good job jordan i think sure peoples opinions are this will be a downyear but we have such high expectations maybe we will do a role reversal and surpass peoples expectations either way i just hope we have some money for roy next year we need him bad he is my favourite player i would not give up if he left but it would hurt alot

my name is matt harvey i am from st catharines ontario i am a huge fan of the jays been so since 1991 i think you are doing a good job jordan i think sure peoples opinions are this will be a downyear but we have such high expectations maybe we will do a role reversal and surpass peoples expectations either way i just hope we have some money for roy next year we need him bad he is my favourite player i would not give up if he left but it would hurt alot

my name is matt harvey i am from st catharines ontario i am a huge fan of the jays been so since 1991 i think you are doing a good job jordan i think sure peoples opinions are this will be a downyear but we have such high expectations maybe we will do a role reversal and surpass peoples expectations either way i just hope we have some money for roy next year we need him bad he is my favourite player i would not give up if he left but it would hurt alot

my name is matt harvey i am from st catharines ontario i am a huge fan of the jays been so since 1991 i think you are doing a good job jordan i think sure peoples opinions are this will be a downyear but we have such high expectations maybe we will do a role reversal and surpass peoples expectations either way i just hope we have some money for roy next year we need him bad he is my favourite player i would not give up if he left but it would hurt alot

my name is matt harvey i am from st catharines ontario i am a huge fan of the jays been so since 1991 i think you are doing a good job jordan i think sure peoples opinions are this will be a downyear but we have such high expectations maybe we will do a role reversal and surpass peoples expectations either way i just hope we have some money for roy next year we need him bad he is my favourite player i would not give up if he left but it would hurt alot

my name is matt harvey i am from st catharines ontario i am a huge fan of the jays been so since 1991 i think you are doing a good job jordan i think sure peoples opinions are this will be a downyear but we have such high expectations maybe we will do a role reversal and surpass peoples expectations either way i just hope we have some money for roy next year we need him bad he is my favourite player i would not give up if he left but it would hurt alot

my name is matt harvey i am from st catharines ontario i am a huge fan of the jays been so since 1991 i think you are doing a good job jordan i think sure peoples opinions are this will be a downyear but we have such high expectations maybe we will do a role reversal and surpass peoples expectations either way i just hope we have some money for roy next year we need him bad he is my favourite player i would not give up if he left but it would hurt alot

my name is matt harvey i am from st catharines ontario i am a huge fan of the jays been so since 1991 i think you are doing a good job jordan i think sure peoples opinions are this will be a downyear but we have such high expectations maybe we will do a role reversal and surpass peoples expectations either way i just hope we have some money for roy next year we need him bad he is my favourite player i would not give up if he left but it would hurt alot

my name is matt harvey i am from st catharines ontario i am a huge fan of the jays been so since 1991 i think you are doing a good job jordan i think sure peoples opinions are this will be a downyear but we have such high expectations maybe we will do a role reversal and surpass peoples expectations either way i just hope we have some money for roy next year we need him bad he is my favourite player i would not give up if he left but it would hurt alot

my name is matt harvey i am from st catharines i have been a fan since 1991 i love my jays i think jordan you are doing a great job but i hope we have money left for roy he is my favourite player and losing him would hurt alot but i think it would be good if we could for once exceed expectations and win as many or more than last year i think if healthy we can

my name is matt harvey i am from st catharines ontario i am a huge fan of the jays been so since 1991 i think you are doing a good job jordan i think sure peoples opinions are this will be a downyear but we have such high expectations maybe we will do a role reversal and surpass peoples expectations either way i just hope we have some money for roy next year we need him bad he is my favourite player i would not give up if he left but it would hurt alot

Halladay is already signed for next yeat at $15. 75 million. To be frank with you, that is probably quite competitive with where the market currently is.

I know a lot has been written about the rotation being the part of this team that holds it back. However, take a look at the numbers.
2008
Halladay:20-11
Burnett:18-10
Litsch: 13-9
Marcum: 9-7
McGowan: 6-7
Purcey: 3-6
Richmond: 1-3
Total: 70-53
I don't think the win numbers will be that difficult to duplicate in 2009. So if these guys do the following the win number is the same.
2009
Halladay:18
Litsch: 14
Purcey: 13
Romero: 13
Richmond/Cecil/Janssen: 12
**I don't think that's out of range, the big question is simply whether they keep us in the game and a bigger question is will the offense produce with RISP-which I think is the real issue.

I agree with Gs that its not impossible. However, realistically I don't think it will happen. Halladay may get 20, but out of Purcey, Romero and the 5th starter, likely only one of them will reach double digit wins. I hope I'm wrong but thats just the way I see it.

Here's my AL East Predictions:

1.Boston
2.New York
3.Toronto
4.Tampa Bay
5.Baltimore