Winter Meetings Day 3

las-vegas.jpgLAS VEGAS — Heading up to bed last night at about 3 a.m., we caught wind that C.C. Sabathia had come close to an agreement to pitch for the Yankees. This morning, it’s reportedly a done deal.

So C.C. will be in the East, not great news for the Blue Jays. It’ll also be interesting to see what this 7-year, $160ish million deal will mean for A.J. Burnett’s pending deal. It could potentially drive up his asking price.

Later this afternoon, we’ll be sitting down with Jays manager Cito Gaston to talk shop. It’s still mostly quiet on the Toronto front, with no real updates on what’s already been reported. So, I’ll keep you posted with any updates throughout the day.

~JB

18 Comments

GS you do make some very good points but what I think you’re assuming is that the core you’ve mentioned will be exactly the same in 2010 that it is now. You’d have to think that if these guys do perform better in ’09 that the value for them will increase and it’ll be easier to deal them should they choose to do so. Worst case scenario is that they aren’t contending by the ’09 deadline and can deal off a few core guys for some prospects/salary relief OR J.P. is fired and the new G.M will at least have a potentially great pitching staff to work with in 2010. Most of the guys had underachieving years by their standards so if you want max. value as you’ve correctly mentioned a few times wait untill they’re showing that they can still be good.

Also, just because they are talking to Pavano doesn’t mean they still can’t shed some payroll via trading the bigger contracts. If they unload Ryan (for example and sign Pavano for about 2 mill. they still save 8 million. I know he’s not the answer though so don’t rip me for thinking he’s the saviour.

Jordan
I heard last night the Jays were speaking to the representitives of Matt Clement. Can you confirm or deny that ?

GS – about Furcal, it’s true that J.P. does lie often but this time the source was Furcal’s representative so I can’t see how J.P. is lying about that. Whether or not he’ll get the money to sign him is a different story though.

Jordan,
If you have a chance to watch the dark knight blu-ray do so. It’s outstanding.

Enigma
My point on Pavano was simply, I don’t expect him to change the ultimate outcome of 2009 nor do I see him as a guy who helps us win in 2010 or 2011-so why sign him?

Enigma
Furcal has already turned down 4 years and $36 mill. or in Jays terms $46 million over 4 years or about $12 mill per year. He turns 32 next year, so whoever signs him for 4 years has to realize he’s going to decline in performance throughout the contract and it’s a real heavy contract. The only way I see Jp getting approval to sign him is if he gets rid of at least one of the heavy contracts we’re already hung with.

My perfect scenario for short stop would see us do a deal with Milwaukee for Alcides Escobar, and while we at it do a deal for Matt Gamel (3rd base) as well.

Look for JP to pick up Adam Eaton,the Phillys are trying to dump him, and they will pick up 8,m of his 9,m contract for 09 and want nothing in return for him.

A.J. Burnett $13,200,000
Frank Thomas $12,560,000
B.J. Ryan $12,000,000
Scott Rolen $11,625,000
Roy Halladay $10,000,000
Lyle Overbay $6,750,000
Alex Rios $4,835,000
David Eckstein $4,500,000
Gregg Zaun $3,750,000
Vernon Wells $3,687,500
Scott Downs $2,250,000
John McDonald $1,900,000
Matt Stairs $1,625,000
Marco Scutaro $1,550,000
Shannon Stewart $1,500,000
Jason Frasor $1,125,000
Rod Barajas $700,000
Brian Tallet $640,000
Aaron Hill $410,000
Dustin McGowan $404,100
Casey Janssen $403,900
Shaun Marcum $402,500
Brandon League $400,300
Jesse Litsch $395,800
Brian Wolfe $395,500
Jeremy Accardo $392,200
Buck Coats $392,100
Total $97,793,900

Sorry didnt know I posted that I meant to post the contract of the jays

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/toronto-blue-jays_05.html

I made a speadsheet of the major contract this doesn’t include arbitration players past 09.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Rolen 11M 11
Halladay 14.25 15.75
BJ Ryan 10 10
Wells 1.5 12 23 21 21
Rios 5.9 9.7 12 12 12.5
Overbay 7 7
Downs 3.75 4
Mac 1.8
Scutaro 1.1
Barajas 2.5
Hill 2.59 4 5 8 8

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Totals 61.39M 73.45M 40M 41M 41.5M

Notice our salary goes up in 2010, without signing anybody and losing a cather and shortshop! At least we have a catcher in the farm system who will be ready by then.

Also this doesn’t include any arbitration players.

I know a lot of people said we should forget about 09 and look 2010, but we might need to look towards 2011.

Also, we have 40M already tied up in 3 players past 2010.

Note: Hill, Wells, Rios have contracts beyond 2013. Also, Wells gets 8.5M in signing bonuses from 2008-10. Not included in salary.

Thoughts

PS Sorry it looked better in excel.

The pessimism for 09… and it’s not even winter yet.

Again, I’ll say that you never know how this team is gonna play. Who would’ve thought last year that the Twins and Sox would’ve finished ahead of Detroit and Cleveland, and that the Rockies would’ve tanked the way they did?

Look at a rotation of Halladay, Downs, Litsch, McGowan, Purcey/Cecil/Janssen/FA or trade. Even without Burnett and Marcum, this team has some good arms both in SP and bullpen. I wouldn’t put all the hopes on the 2010 season (or beyond). It’s hard to predict that far ahead, and I have a feeling Marcum won’t be quite the same when he returns.

A lineup similar to below could also score a lot of runs under Cito, if everyone hits like they’ve done on average in their careers, or better. There are many question marks though. Basically, there are question marks about every single player listed below considering their recent performances. But they’ve also all historically shown that they have potential…
Rios Of
Hill SS
Lind OF
Wells CF
Snider DH
Overbay 1B
Rolen 3B
Barajas C
Inglett SS

Reverse the series outcomes with Cleveland in 08 (1-7?), and the Jays’ would have had 92 wins. With a bunch of good teams beating up on each other in the AL East, 92 wins could be enough.

The Jays signed Matt Clement to a minor league deal today.
Good or bad hard to say,In my opinion it may be a good deal and the cost is minimal.

LAS VEGAS ( from SI.com) — The Yankees are believed to have offered free-agent starter A.J. Burnett a five-year, $80 million deal. The Atlanta Braves are considered the other main contender for Burnett, and they offered him a four-year contract for $60 million with a vesting option for a fifth year. It isn’t known yet whether Atlanta will match the Yankees’ big bid. The Nationals, Orioles, Blue Jays and Red Sox also have spoken to Burnett’s camp at the meetings.

The Yankees also remain very interested in free-agent starter Derek Lowe, having talked to him about a four-year, $60 million deal. Additionally, the Yankees have been reviewing the medical records of Ben Sheets and are interested in him, depending on how the negotiations go with Burnett and Lowe, and are still considering bringing Andy Pettitte back to the Bronx for another season.

gsjays, I heard that the yankees upped their offer to Burnett for $85 million over 5 years. Now if the yankees get Lowe or Sheets, a healthy rotation of Sabathia, Wang, Burnett, Lowe, and Chamberlain sounds pretty intense.

this is rediculous!i can’t believe every team but the yankees aren’t pushing for a salary cap!!yankees are going too far!!

What is J.P doing! I like the furcal deal but not the pavano or clement. pavano is garbage the guy has play like 26 games in four years. Tell me what u think of these deals. i think they are ridiculous

You can sign the best pitchers in the league if you want,but will they remain healthy all year,They Yankees will be sorry if they dont.Hmmmm.

Freedom
The Yanks have stated they will be signing a minimum of two of three of Burnett, Lowe and Sheets, and possibly all 3. In addition, they have expressed interest in re-signing Andy Petite-which might or might not be a smoke screen. It could be that they put Chamberlain back in as the set up man instead of starting.

No question, its a strong group of starters ( probably the best in MLB) and they’ll have backup depth with Hughes and Kennedy. They also did a good job last year of rebuilding their bull pen, and if Chamberlain goes back as the set up man, their bullpen will be as good or better than ours.

Even after these signings, they still have lots of money to spend and have let it be known they’d like to sign both Tiexeira and Manny. If that happens, along with this pitching staff, I think I’d bet on the Yanks being in the playoffs. lol

matty
The worst deal of all three would be if we signed Furcal. We already have too many expensive contracts with under achievers. It’s time to dump them and go with kids-not add another.

GS- I definitly agree with you. I didnt put that to thought. I just saw that they would be getting a short stop who has proved himself in the league as both a hitter and defensivle. Dont get me wrong i love john macdonald and scutaro. Then jays need that leadoff bat furcal brings. Ever since JP start the job and general manfer he has been doing it. Signing guys off a injury year and hope they can get back to what they were before the injury. I would like to see him get a player has proved themselves in the league and have stay healthy most of the time. What about maybe a rebuild? just a thought. He keeps saying if we are healthy we will be good, well the team cant, even though some are just unlucky.

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